Squawk Box Europe Express

Earnings season heats up with Swiss bank UBS beating on the top and bottom line, delivering its best second quarter in 9 years. CEO Sergio Ermotti tells CNBC the strong performance comes despite interest rate uncertainty. Santander also tops forecasts but second-quarter profit drops on restructuring costs relating to Banco Popular. In the U.S., technology stocks rally ahead of key reports from Facebook, Alphabet and Amazon. In the UK, foreign minister Jeremy Hunt calls for the formation of a European maritime mission to counter Iranian threats in the Gulf, but the focus is on the reaction from Downing Street, as Boris Johnson is expected to be named Conservative Party leader today.

International strife in the Strait of Hormuz drives oil prices higher. The U.K. government calls the seizure of a British-flagged oil tanker by Iranian commandos ‘an illegal act’. Chinese technology stocks soar on their first day of trading on the STAR market, Shanghai’s new exchange is aimed at rivalling the Nasdaq. In Japan, the ruling bloc falls shy of a super-majority in Upper House elections. The result could hamper Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s push for constitutional reform. And there are chaotic scenes in Hong Kong with pro-democracy demonstrators clashing with authorities during the seventh consecutive weekend of violence in the territory.  

Asian stocks get a boost at the end of the week following dovish comments from New York Federal Reserve president John Williams and Federal Reserve vice-chairman Richard Clarida about a possible rate cut later this month. Tensions in the Gulf bump oil prices higher following the taking down of an Iranian drone by a US Navy vessel. In corporate news, Microsoft shares soar to a record high following a 12 per cent rise in Q4 sales fuelled by its cloud service. Meanwhile, Boeing will take a near-$5bn tax hit as a result of the on-going grounding of its troubled 737 Max planes.

U.S. stocks hit reverse on July’s gains, with the S&P 500 putting in its worst day in three weeks. In Europe, earnings from Novartis, Alstom and SAP dominate the headlines, while Netflix shares sink after a big miss for Q2 subscriber growth. Facebook’s cryptocurrency Libra keeps finance ministers on edge at the G7 meeting in Chantilly, France. And Amazon shares come under pressure after the European Commission launches an anti-trust investigation into how the online retail giant uses merchants’ data. 

A little way off record highs and a long way to go on a trade deal. U.S. stocks snap their winning streak as President Trump casts doubt on the progress of negotiations between the U.S. and China. Ahead of the G7 summit in Chantilly, France, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterates that he will ‘act as appropriate’ to sustain the U.S. economic expansion amid increased global uncertainty. In Strasbourg, Ursula Von Der Leyen becomes the first female European Commission president, winning over MEPs with her vision of a greener, fairer Europe. In Washington, Facebook faces scrutiny over its plans to launch cryptocurrency Libra, while the Swiss firm set to oversee the currency’s privacy tells CNBC that is has yet to hear from the social media giant.

U.S. markets continue to break records but investors remain cautious about the health of the economy ahead of the upcoming earnings season. Facebook’s cryptocurrency Libra has come under more criticism, this time from U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin who has voiced concerns it could be used for illicit activities. In the UK, Tory Party leadership candidates Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt harden their Brexit stances but outgoing Chancellor Philip Hammond tells CNBC that he will do what he can to prevent a no-deal Brexit. And we’re live in Brussels where German defence minister Ursula Von Der Leyen faces a knife-edge vote which could make her the European Commission’s next president, or potentially cause an institutional rupture within the bloc should she not succeed.

Squawk Box anchors discuss the slowdown in Chinese Q2 GDP – at 6.2% it’s the lowest quarterly growth in 27 years. In Hong Kong, protests flare up again with demonstrators demanding the resignation of city CEO Carrie Lam. AB Inbev postpones its Budweiser IPO blaming weak demand which, at $9.8bn, would have been the biggest listing this year. We’re also live in Dubrovnik where the IMF and Croatian National Bank are holding a CESEE event. The leadership race to find the next managing director of the IMF is heating up.   

Another milestone for U.S. stock markets with the Dow breaching the 27,000 mark for the very first time, a day after the S&P tops 3,000.The Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has kept July rate cut hopes alive, saying that the central bank would respond to increasing global risks. In addition, Powell voiced concerns over Libra during his Senate testimony while President Trump has also hit out at Facebook’s crypto-currency, saying it will have “little standing”. He also slammed Beijing for not sticking to trade promises ahead of June Chinese trade data being released. And in corporate news, China’s Fosun Tourism Group prepares a £750m capital injection into ailing UK firm Thomas Cook.  

U.S. equity markets hit fresh highs and the S&P 500 crosses the 3,000 level after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sets the stage for an ‘insurance’ cut later this month. President Trump launches a probe into France's proposed tax on tech firms, sparking concerns the move could lead to more tariffs between the U.S. and Europe. And oil prices hit their highest level in six weeks as producers in the Gulf Mexico cut their output ahead of what could be the first major storm of the hurricane season.

Waiting for the Fed. Equity markets trade cautiously as central bank chairman Jerome Powell prepares to begin his 2-day testimony on Capitol Hill. Trade talks are back on, with a ‘constructive’ phone call between Washington and Beijing breaking the U.S.-China stalemate. Chinese factory inflation falls flat for the month of June following almost three years of unbroken growth, raising fears of a manufacturing slowdown. And in corporate news, Airbus is set to leapfrog Boeing as the world’s largest plane maker as the U.S. firm sees deliveries slide by 37%.

‘The extradition bill is dead’. Squawk Box analyses the impact of the scrapping of the controversial Hong Kong legislation following months of protests and civil unrest. Shares in Deutsche Bank see red as investors begin to question the bank’s dramatic overhaul, with 18,000 jobs set to go in a €7.4 bn shake-up. On Wall Street, Apple shares sink after Rosenblatt Securities downgrades the stock, citing a ‘fundamental deterioration’ in sales growth at the tech giant. And in Washington, President Trump launches a Twitter attack on the UK’s ambassador to the U.S. and UK Prime Minister Theresa May over leaked diplomatic cables critical of his administration.

Deutsche Bank announces a radical overhaul, cutting 18,000 jobs and exiting its global equities sales and trading business. The German lender’s CFO James Von Moltke tells CNBC that this round of restructuring will be the last. A strong U.S. jobs report prompts investors to dial back on hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut. However, the Bank of France governor tells this channel that the ECB may move as early as this month. And we are live in Greece where we hear from newly elected prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis whose New Democracy has won a resounding victory ousting Alexis Tsipras and his Syriza party.

Samsung falls victim to U.S.-China trade tensions, warning second-quarter profits will halve after deliveries to the Chinese smartphone maker Huawei sink. Broader Asian equities stick to two-month highs while global bond yields hold near-record lows ahead of the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data later today. Relations between Tehran and the West sour further following the seizure of an Iranian tanker suspected of Syrian sanctions violations by British forces off the coast of Gibraltar. And President Trump uses the 4th of July celebrations to highlight America’s military might, with tanks and aircraft featuring in a lavish parade in Washington D.C.

The global bond market rally accelerates. Squawk Box anchors discuss the moves in fixed income markets. The U.S. ten-year yield hits a 32-month low while euro zone bond rates fall to fresh record lows, amid expectations that ECB President nominee Christine Lagarde will maintain the central bank’s dovish stance. White House economics advisor Larry Kudlow has signalled that U.S.-China talks will resume ‘soon’ in a bid to resolve trade tensions. Washington prepares for a lavish multimillion-dollar military celebration to mark the 4th of July. The cost of restructuring Deutsche Bank could reportedly amount to €5 billion. And in Brussels, the European Union Commission has called off threats of disciplinary action against Rome after the Italian government took measures to trim its public debt.

Squawk Box anchors talk change at the top for the EU’s most important institutions. Christine Lagarde is nominated to become the next president of the ECB as EU leaders finally break the deadlock to agree on who will fill the the bloc’s executive positions. Oil prices fall despite an Opec+ deal to extend the supply cut. Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo tells this channel that Russia is now an important and trusted ally of the cartel. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 posts its seventh record close of the year, but Asian equities fall as trade concerns and poor Chinese data weigh on prices. And in autos, Tesla smashes Q2 production and delivery records sending its shares soaring in after-hours trading.

The global rally loses steam after the S&P 500 closes at a fresh record high, following President Trump’s confirmation that new trade talks with China have already started. Calm returns to Hong Kong following violent overnight protests with demonstrators storming and vandalising the Legislative Council building. We are live on site as the clean-up operation begins. We’re also at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, China, where Premier Li acknowledges global and domestic economic risks and says Beijing will push forward with opening up its financial and manufacturing sectors. Oil prices slip overnight despite yesterday’s decision by Opec to extend supply cuts for a further 9 months. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid Al-Falih says demand is already picking up.

Chinese stocks and U.S. futures surge after Presidents Trump and Xi agree on a trade truce at the G20 summit in Osaka, calling a time-out on any fresh tariffs. President Trump also makes a historic visit crossing over the DMZ to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un. We are live in Japan and at the World Economic Forum meeting in China with reactions from policymakers. Iran backs the Saudi-Russian plan to extend existing oil supply cuts, paving the way for a deal at the OPEC meeting in Vienna. CNBC sources confirm reports Deutsche Bank is planning to cut up to 20,000 jobs in a major overhaul.  

CNBC confirms Chinese President Xi Jinping is ready to offer the U.S. a set of demands to conclude a trade deal which would feature lifting a ban on Huawei, while President Trump emphasises the importance of security in 5G. We are live at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, where bilateral meetings between the world’s top leaders continue. The enthusiasm for a trade deal, however, isn’t reflected in Asian stocks with markets edging lower and Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman telling this channel exclusively that he believes U.S.-China trade talks may drag on for up to a decade.  Credit Suisse only gets a conditional pass in the Fed’s latest bank stress tests, sending shares lower in after-hours on Wall Street, but Deutsche Bank rallies as it makes it through. And in a second night of televised debates, ten more Democrat presidential candidates hit out at Donald Trump - and each other.

Asian shares rise on a report that the U.S. and China have struck a trade truce ahead of a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 in Osaka, Japan this weekend. President Trump also boosts hope of a possible trade deal as leaders make their way to the summit. In Miami, Democrat presidential candidates face off in the first round of debates with healthcare, immigration and Trump’s economic policies the predominant topics. In corporate news, there are rumours that the EU may give Vodafone the go-ahead with its $22bn takeover of Liberty Global, while activist investor Elliott Advisors confirms a holding in German chemicals giant Bayer. 

Asian stocks follow Wall Street into the red after U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell plays down expectations of an interest rate cut, saying monetary policy should not overreact to any individual data point or short-term swing in sentiment. Gold also climbs down from a six-year high. President Trump threatens Iran with "obliteration" after Tehran's president questions the mental competence of the U.S. leader. We are live in Manama, Bahrain, where President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner is holding a Middle East peace workshop. And U.S. chipmakers appear to side-step Washington's ban on Huawei, as the administration reportedly aims to restart trade negotiations with China after Presidents Trump and Xi meet at the G20.