Investment Insights

The S&P 500 stock index ended September down by 4.8%, its first monthly drop since January and the largest fall since March 2020. Vincent Nichols, investment specialist for US equities, reviews recent events and the outlook for US stocks.

At the centre of a pandemic-induced boom, stern regulation efforts and forays into new turf, the technology sector is making almost daily headlines and requires robust research to separate the possibilities from the pitfalls, argues Pamela Hegarty, lead portfolio manager with a focus on information technology and communication services.

Uncertainty over the macroeconomic landscape and the outlook for monetary policy currently combine with an awareness among investors that by many measures, valuations in public markets are on the high side. David Bouchoucha, head of our private debt and real assets team, talks about the characteristics that make private debt an attractive alternative.

What will be the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic for the food and agriculture sector? How is the transition towards more sustainable food production and consumption affected? Agne Rackauskaite, co-portfolio manager of Impax Asset Management’s sustainable food strategy, gives investors her view on the post-pandemic outlook.

It is a win-win for companies to target the social aspects of doing business, next to environmental responsibility and proper governance, and it can be so for investors as well, argues senior portfolio manager Maria Luz Diaz Blanco.

In mid-June, Fed Chair Jay Powell pulled the rug from beneath the reflation trade by suggesting current inflation pressures were perhaps not transitory after all. Fixed income markets promptly reversed course with 10-year US Treasury yields last week trading as low as 1.25% after ending the first quarter at 1.70%. In this week’s podcast, Olivier de Larouziere, chief investment officer fixed income, explains what remains of the 2021 reflation trade. Listen to the podcast with Olivier de Larouziere, chief investment officer fixed income.

While many parts of the economy had to shut down as the coronavirus pandemic raged, the lights stayed on, water flowed from taps and internet connections buzzed. The crisis has highlighted the importance of the underlying infrastructure and, as Karen Azoulay explains, it was a useful reminder of the solidity of infrastructure debt as an asset class. Listen to the podcast with Karen Azoulay, head of infrastructure debt.

Addressing ecosystem restoration is just as pressing as tackling CO2 emissions and can generate billions of dollars of investment opportunities, as Ulrik Fugmann and Edward Lees, co-heads of the Environmental Strategies Group, explain.

Emerging market equities offer investors a wide range of diversification opportunities across economies with a solid post-pandemic growth profile that include, but also stretch beyond, China and the wider Asian region. Quang Nguyen, head of global emerging market equities, argues the case for a broad perspective and active portfolio management.

Thanks to central bank largesse, corporate bond markets weathered the depth of the Covid crisis well. Risks to credit markets today appear low with gradually improving fundamentals, neutral central bank policy and no major supply-demand imbalances.

On account of the region’s strong economic growth, Asia has a considerable impact on climate change, but at the same time is, perhaps disproportionately, exposed to its effects. That makes engaging with companies and working with the authorities all the more important for investors such as BNP Paribas Asset Management. Paul Milon, Head of stewardship Asia Pacific, explains.

Fund flows to date have massively favoured US equities, but European equities now have considerable scope to catch up as the economic recovery broadens and investors reassess their valuations relative to their more expensive US counterparts. Peter Abbott, European equities portfolio manager, shares his views.

Climate change and pollution are among the factors reducing biodiversity. The result is considerable damage to society and the economy. Robert-Alexandre Poujade, ESG analyst at our Sustainability Centre, warns not to underestimate the consequences of biodiversity loss and underscores the role investors can play in the battle to contain and reverse current trends.

The economic recovery should broaden into a synchronised global upturn in the course of the second half of this year, favouring risky assets including commodities, equities generally and notably emerging market equities. An equity correction should be seen as a buying opportunity, argues Christophe Moulin, Head of Multi Asset.

Inflation has been quiescent in developed economies in recent years. Today, the possibility that we may be on the brink of a secular shift away from the low-flation regime is a topic of intense debate among investors. Nowhere is this more so than in the US where the abundance of fiscal and monetary support is seen by some as irresponsible in creating risks of an inflationary shock. Cedric Scholtes, Head of Global Sovereign, Inflation and Rates, discusses the outlook.

Being open to an inclusive growth approach goes hand in hand with a focus on long-term performance and contributes to a better climate for doing business and investment. As investment specialist Ramon Esteruelas and ESG research analyst Delphine Riou argue, it is also good for profitability and can help mitigate business risk.

Long-term growth trends and innovation continue to create demand for healthcare at a rate that exceeds the pace of economic growth. Jon Stephenson, portfolio manager for healthcare stocks discusses the factors behind rising healthcare expenditure, the impact of the pandemic and the outlook for the sector.

Green bonds have grown and matured as a fixed-income segment over the past decade. The need for climate action has spurred a raft of green projects and activities that combat climate change and other environmental challenges and seek to contribute to a net zero world. Felipe Gordillo and Xuan Sheng Ou Yong answer four questions on this growing market and its outlook.

The outlook for US interest rates is shifting towards a normalisation of central bank policy now that the economic recovery appears to be entrenched. Ken O’Donnell, head of short duration fixed income, discusses how investors could tackle this challenge.

Asian equities rode high early in the year amid optimism over the recovery in China, the new US administration and improved relations with China, and the advent of vaccines. The outlook for investor flows into much of the region has remained positive, even after a valuation-related setback. Four questions for Zhikai Chen, head of Asian equities.